About

Most AI projects fail before they start. Not because the technology is wrong — but because nobody asked the right question first.

I’m Matt Sheehan. Twenty-five years ago I started building geospatial systems. What that discipline taught me — before AI became a boardroom conversation — is that the hardest problem was never collecting the data. It was connecting data to understanding. Location to cause. Observation to decision.

Today that problem has still to be solved. In fact it just got bigger.

My current focus is the gap at the heart of modern AI: the difference between systems that perceive the world and systems that reason causally about it. The sensing layer is being built. The reasoning layer is the next frontier.

My work approaches this through geospatial intelligence — the richest, most physically grounded data foundation available — as the domain where causal reasoning gets proven first. That work I call Causal Planetary Intelligence.

I write about this weekly in the Decision Layer Newsletter. I develop frameworks — including the Six-Stage AI Maturity Model and the Opportunity-to-Value Framework — that help organisations navigate the transition from correlation to causal reasoning.

Frameworks – The thinking behind the work.

Each of the frameworks below were built by me to address a different layer of the same problem — the gap between AI that sees and AI that understands:

Causal Planetary Intelligence AI can now perceive the physical world at scale. What it cannot yet do is reason causally — understand why things are happening and simulate what changes if you intervene. This framework maps the three-layer architecture that closes that gap. Read the argument → What is Causal PI?

The Six-Stage AI Maturity Model A diagnostic that identifies precisely where an organisation sits on the journey from analog and siloed to anticipatory intelligence — and what is creating decision latency at each stage. View the framework → AI Maturity Model

The Opportunity-to-Value Framework The delivery architecture most AI programmes skip. Three phases, three scaling value gates — the architecture that keeps AI initiatives alive from pilot to production. The OVF Framework

The Customer Lifecycle Management Guide and Discovery Readiness instrument — Operational tools for organisations working through the Horizon One to Horizon Two transition.

The Conversation

The ideas here are developed in dialogue, not isolation.

I’m particularly interested in talking with people navigating the Horizon One to Horizon Two transition — CDOs sitting on extraordinary data assets that aren’t yet driving decisions, transformation leaders watching AI pilots stall before they reach the business, and anyone wrestling seriously with the gap between AI that perceives and AI that reasons.

If something in the writing landed, or if you think I’ve got something wrong, I want to hear about it.

mattsheehan@spatialnext.io

Writing

  • The Fire Chief Doesn’t Need a Better Map. She Needs a Second Brain.

    Geospatial data gave us the most powerful sensing layer ever built. Here’s why that’s only the beginning. It’s Tuesday morning and a wildfire is moving toward three communities in Northern California. The fire chief has more information than any fire chief in history. Satellite feeds updating every 30 seconds. Wind models. Fuel load data. Infrastructure…

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  • Why AI Can See the Flood But Cannot Tell You What To Do About It

    The causal reasoning gap — and why closing it is the foundation of Causal Planetary Intelligence Last Friday I published an article arguing that Will Marshall‘s Planetary Intelligence framework, both compelling and consequential, is missing one critical architectural layer. Will and team are building the sensing system: the eyes, but what is not in place…

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  • Planetary Intelligence Can See. It Cannot Yet Understand.

    TL;DR: Current geospatial AI (including satellites, sensors, and Earth models) is great at telling us what is happening in real-time, but still relies on humans to figure out why and what to do. The author argues the missing piece is causal reasoning — AI that doesn’t just perceive the world but understands cause and effect,…

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  • Seeing Is Not Understanding. Why the Causality Gap Is AI’s Next Frontier.

    TL;DR: AI systems like Planetary Intelligence can now perceive the world at scale — but perception isn’t understanding. The real frontier is causal reasoning: knowing not just what is happening, but why, and what changes if you intervene. From self-driving cars to insurance to dashboards, the same gap keeps appearing — more data and better…

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  • The Geospatial Gap Is Widening. Four Signals You Can’t Ignore

    TL;DR: The world model bet just got $450M more serious. Google is already building planetary-scale geospatial reasoning without the industry’s help. And most geospatial organisations are still trying to sell the future with a 2019 business model. This week’s four reads explain why that gap is about to become a chasm. Matt Sheehan | Spatial-Next:…

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  • The Map Is No Longer the Destination: Geospatial’s Defining Moment

    TL;DR The geospatial industry is building faster, slicker tools (AI-powered maps, natural language queries, instant analysis) — but risks missing the bigger shift happening underneath it. It has the best fuel for the next AI engine, but is still optimizing the horse. The author’s core argument: most geospatial AI is still pattern-matching on the past…

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  • Geospatial’s Faster Horse Problem

    TL;DR: The AI revolution is creating two worlds — your existing business (Horizon 1) and a fundamentally different future (Horizon 2). Most companies are treating Horizon 2 as just an upgrade to what they already do, which is a mistake. Incumbents have resources and relationships but risk getting stuck protecting the past. Startups can build…

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  • The Machines Are Learning How the World Works. Are You?

    The Decision Layer Signal Scan — Week of May 19, 2026 TL;DR AI is reshaping not just what organizations do, but how they’re built, what they understand, where they get their data, and what role humans play in it all. This week: ditch the org chart, watch world models, notice who’s sitting on valuable training…

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  • Your Strategy is Only as Fast as Your Slowest Decision

    1. Matt Sheehan | Spatial-Next: You Know AI is Changing Everything: So Why Aren’t Your Projects Scaling? The Gist: Most AI projects fail not because the technology is wrong, but because they are technology-led rather than outcome-led. The organisations scaling AI successfully started with a business problem. Two frameworks — the Six-Stage AI Maturity Model…

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  • The Geospatial Value Chain is about to Invert

    TL;DR: The geospatial industry is still building “faster horses” — better dashboards and analysts — when the game has fundamentally changed. AI can now consume and act on spatial data at machine speed, making the human-in-the-loop the bottleneck. The winners will be companies that reformat their data for machines to query and reason over directly,…

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Causal AI: Closing the gap between AI that sees and AI that understands.

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